Case-Shiller data continues to show big jumps in house prices, the largest gains in years. Speculators trip over each other to buy any outhouse that comes on the market. Bubble-prone cities are in bubbles again. PFE and MRK beat by a penny but revenue and guidance are not impressive. COH is taking the pipe -6% so this will hurt the retail sector today. SAVE thwacked -6% so this may hurt the Trannies. Fertilizer and potash stocks are pole-axed, relentlessly beaten, POT crashing -26%, AGU -10% and MOS -30%. Whoa, that is intense. Copper is weak today, oil and commodities are sold off. As usual, however, gravity does not exist, and the S&P futures are pointing to a +5 to +7 pop at the opening bell. Traders are likely ignoring all bad news this week since the central bankers will be handing out candy to everyone.
Keybot the Quant is long but wants to flip short. The weakness in semiconductors, watch SOX 471.15, created the market downside yesterday. If SPX falls under 1682, Keybot should flip to the short side. Alas, futures say up not down. If SOX moves above 471.15, the bulls are back in business without worry. Watch VIX 14.26 and GTX 4785, both causing market bullishness. Any move to the bear side for these two will send markets strongly lower. GTX may be affected by the commodity negativity mentioned above. If bulls move SOX back above 471.15 and VIX and GTX stay bullish, the SPX will be moving towards 1700 again.
For the SPX starting at 1685, the bulls need to move above 1691, and hold it for a few minutes, and an upside acceleration will occur pointing the way to 1700. The futures indicate that this test at 1691 is on tap at the open. The bears need to push under 1682 today to accelerate the downside. A move through 1683-1690 is sideways action. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. FOMC meeting begins today but the announcement is tomorrow afternoon at 2 PM EST. Consumer Confidence is 10 AM and will create a market pivot point so the initial market direction is not too important until 10 AM. Watch SOX 471.15, SPX 1691 and the 8/34 cross on the 30-minute to determine market direction.
Note Added 10:12 AM: Markets pivot to the upside after the 10 AM pivot. Consumer Confidence remains above 80 which is five-year highs. SOX jumped above 471.15 at the opening bell. Say no more. Bulls are back in business and trying to push through 1691-1692 so they can start the move to 1700. SOX is pushing towards 474 which will provide bull fuel today. VIX is on the plus side at 13.46, by pennies, but up nonetheless so with the SPX up and VIX up, one of them is wrong today. TRIN is 1.14, bearish, and creates negativity making the bulls work to move higher. The sideways behavior continues as the markets decide on the path ahead. Above SPX 1692 and the bulls should start running higher. Watch SOX 471.15 and GTX 4785 today, both creating market lift. Time for a snooze in the hammock under the oak trees on this clear summer day.
Terimakasih anda telah membaca artikel tentang Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 7/30/13; Consumer Confidence. Jika ingin menduplikasi artikel ini diharapkan anda untuk mencantumkan link https://bernankemessagesbest.blogspot.com/2013/07/keystone-morning-wake-up-73013-consumer.html. Terimakasih atas perhatiannya.